It's time to predict how the teams will finish the season. I've totally blown it the last two seasons so why should this season be any different.
In the AL East, Jack Street looks good. They're playing at a .667 clip and look good enough to keep that pace. Stratton and Glavine are a great 1-2 punch and Hornsby is a stud. Plus they have 5 players with double digit homers. The Hustlers ability to win consistently on the road as well as at home will help them win close to 100 games. Plus, they have a good record in 1-run games and do well in extra innings. Add the fact that they are 34-15 against their East Division opponents and Jack Street looks really good.
Havana will stay on the heels of Jack Street. They are playing .606 at home and .625 away. If they continue they could win 100. H.Casey and K.Appier are solid on the mound, but they need to get more usage out of C.Kluber,... 6-0, 2.09 in 6 starts. H.Kuenn, B.Bonds, and S.Seybold are tearing the cover off the ball and the Team BA is .281. I won't count them out if Jack Street hits a slump.
Middle Channel is doing good at home but is about .500 away. They are not good in 1-run games, having only won 7 of 20 and have not won in extra innings. This could hurt them. M.Scherzer is posting Cy Young stats and gets support from S.Leever and C.Lundgren. However, I see a possible digression from the latter two. D.Parker and H.Groh lead the offense with F.Thomas in support. Based on their card numbers, I don't see them continuing at that pace. So, sorry Jamie, I see Middle Channel dropping down a slot.
Lewisberry is .477 at home and .568 away. That hurts. However, it is easier to get your home record back to an above .500 number than it is to do the same for an away record. If they can maintain a good away record and improve their home record, well, remember they are 31-18 within their East Division and could take over Middle Channel. O.Hershiser, with his mid 3 ERA is the ace and J. Clarkson is his second. They need to continue and get some help. Offense can be summed up in one word,...Ruth,...as in Babe. Somebody has to step up and help him. None-the-less, I see Lewisberry moving up a notch.
The last four teams in the AL East will end up somewhat in the order they are in now. Cincinnati, with a .500 home record has the best chance of finishing above the other three. Most all of their main starters are in the 4.00 and above ERA range, so they need to get the best out of them they can. And T.Williams is the only big bat. They will need a few other players to contribute more. Knowing John, he's set to get Cincinnati moving in the second half.
Chicago may fall further than where they are. Pitching is surprisingly decent with three pitchers having ERA's in the 3's. Those three being M.Stottlemyre, W.Ford and R.Clemens. If they can keep those guys at that level and get a little help from some others, maybe,...well maybe, maybe. But they have no hitting other than B.Robinson's 10 homers and .208 BA. That's going to hurt. Look for a lower finish.
Kansas City is similar to Chicago. Their pitching has a couple of starters with ERA's in the high 3's with three others in the 4, 5 and 6 ERA's. In that group, J.Horlen appears to be the ace. The hitting is much better,... 24 points better than Chicago. W.Cooper leads in BA at .333 and J.Torre complements him at .290. Leading the AL with 100 HR's, Kanas City has six players with double-digit homers. H.Aaron is the biggest thumper even though his BA is not in the normal Aaron air. Look for Kansas City to move up a bit.
Delaware? Well, Dave,...looks like you'll hold down the basement. Delaware is not having any luck at home or away. Their top starter has a 4.60 ERA and the team ERA is next to last in the AL. They do have M.Vaughn hitting the ball and E.Mathews adds a touch of power along with R.Kiner. But it's just not clicking for Delaware this season. Looks like it's time to start retooling for next season.
So that's it for the AL East. I'm predicting just minimal movement the rest of the season within this Division. Remember, just my thoughts. I don't claim to be an accurate genie in a bottle, No rhyme or reason to how I make a judgment on what I decide.
Alright, let's take a look at the AL West. Steve and his Hollywood team are having a good year, They are almost unbeatable at home (playing .731) and very good away (playing .625). Going deeper, Hollywood has winning records against all AL teams with the exception of Middle Channel and Fort Worth. Add to that, Hollywood is 35-14 against Divisional teams and they stand a real good chance for the Division title. With a starting staff that is led by M.Bumgarner and his 2.76 ERA and an offense led by A-Rod and G.Cravath, this Hollywood team will finish right where they are now.
Fort Worth is trying to pressure Hollywood. They have a .784 record at home,...but they are playing .455 away. Fort Worth is very good in 1-run games and extra innings, so if they can improve their away play they will give Hollywood trouble. With low 3 ERA's, C.Root and S.Williams lead a solid staff while H.Baker leads an offense that is last in the AL in HR's and about middle of the pack in run production. They will need much improvement here. Can they pass Hollywood? Maybe. Will they? I am not so sure they will. But I think they will place second.
Cheyenne is hanging with the big boys,...playing .525 at home and .585 away. If they do better at home they could give Fort Worth a problem. They're real good in 1-run games but about 50-50 in extra innings. The answer for that? Stay out of extra innings and get that 1 run you need to win in the 9th. Cheyenne's mound corps is led by J.Donaldson. Whose 3.27 ERA is much better than the team ERA of 4.06. The hitting? Well, team wise it's not too bad., T.Gwynn leads in BA and D.Camilli leads in HR. No power for Gwynn and no BA for Camilli. Will they overtake Fort Worth? No. They could even get overtaken by San Diego. But I don't think they will.
San Diego sits with a record at about .500. Their .455 home record is not as good as their .568 away record, which could bode well for them if they play better at home in the second half. The 1-run games and extra innings are both at the 50-50 level. Though the pitching sees them ranked 11 out of 16, E.Joss is having a good year and is a reliable ace. Hitting ranks 4th and basically carries the team. F.Sanchez and B.Terry lead the hitters although new additions D.Daulton and D.Uggla added some pop. I see San Diego dropping down a slot.
Purry is playing right below .500 ball and their home record is worse than their away record. But the interesting thing is that Purry has a better winning record against their West Division rivals than the two teams ahead of them in the standings. J.Schmidt heads a starting five that all have ERA's between 3.66 and 3.87,...which ranks them 5th in the AL. A good staff. It's the hitting that brings them down,...a .227 team BA and only 57 team homers. C.Blackmon and J.Votto are basically their two better hitters. If this team could get their hitting going I could see them moving up a notch. I think they will overtake San Diego.
Wrigleyville is frustrating Mgr. Paul. Playing at a .395 clip, they have a losing record at home and are .500 away. And their luck isn't any better in 1-run games and extra innings. Their pitching staff is 16th in the AL with a 5.16 ERA due to bad years by guys such as C.Hunter, B.Welch, D.McNally and D.Stieb. The hitting is down as well with a ranking of 11 out of 16. A.Simmons and E.Banks are having good years but they need help from others on the team. Sorry Paul but I think your pitching will let you down. I see Wrigleyville finishing where they are.
Stratford is right behind Wrigleyville by 2 games. Yeah, I know. Not a good year for them. There record at home is 20-20 but away they are,...well, let's just say, not good. Their pitching staff is ranked 12th in the AL and is led by C.Hendrix with a mid-3's ERA. The other starters are in the high 4's and 6's. Now, the hitting is not too bad. They rank about in the middle of the 16 teams. S.Jackson leads the team with some good numbers and, in part time play, R.Campanella is tearing the cover off the ball. The hitting is good enough to move the team up some, but the pitching is not gonna let that happen. They'll stay where they are.
Thunder Ridge is,...well, out of the race. They've already lost 60 games and are destined to lose many more. My apologies John. But it will get better. Hang in there. Thunder Ridge has some good pitchers, like B.Gibson, F.Valenzuela, J.DeGrom and T,Bridges. They just have bad card years right now. You could almost say the same of the hitters, though O.Cepeda is having a good year. Players like N.Arenado and C.Delgado (along with a few other names) need to get good cards. When it all comes together, Thunder Ridge will be a difference maker. Until then, they'll hold down the cellar.
Well that's my take on the AL and how it will wind up. We all know that I'm totally way off. But what the hey. Start throwing the mud pies.
Paul
Virginia
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
Okay, so now it's time to check out the NL predictions.
We'll start in the East. Coastline. If memory serves me correctly, and it usually doesn't , this is the first time Coastline reached the halfway point without having the best record in the NL. But it's still good enough. They're playing at a .630 clip with strong numbers home and away. When it comes to their Division, they are 33-16. They also have good numbers in 1-run games and in extra innings they're about .500. The undefeated K.Brown and his 2.50 ERA leads the 7th ranked pitching staff in the NL and H.Wilson leads the offense that ranks 5th in the NL. Coastline is only 2 games ahead of Detroit and Detroit has beaten Coastline. All other records are very similar, so you could go either way in a prediction. It would not surprise me if Detroit took the Division. But I am going with the two-time Division winner. Coastline will take it.
Detroit is very similar to Coastline in terms of records. Their winning percentage is .605, their home-away records are similar, their 1-run game record is similar, but their extra innings record is better than Coastline. Plus, Detroit is 4-3 head to head against Coastline. Detroit's pitching is 3.61 to Coastline's 3.59 but DET's team has a .264 BA to Coastline's .246. Yes, Coastline has more HR's but DET has a 5.4 R/C to CLB's 4.9. D.Luque heads the DET starting staff with a 3.55 ERA and N.Lajoie the batters with a .344 BA and 19 HR. I want to say DET will overtake CLB, but I believe a couple of batters will not sustain the stats they have created so far. If they do, they will take the Division.
Fantomz, Pigtown and Climax are all tied for 3rd with a 40-41 record. Climax has the only home record over .500 and Fantomz has the only away record over .500. Pigtown is over .500 in 1-run games and they are all about .500 when comes to wins in the eastern Division.
Fantomz are ranked 3rd in team pitching. R.Oswalt leads the team with a 2.62 ERA and has good support from N.Winters and B.Zito. The Fantomz 13 ranking in hitting doesn't bode well for them. They need some more punch in that area. Only 4 teams have scored fewer runs than the Fantomz. They need more hits to get runners on base. B.Nicholson and R.Santo are doing what they can, but...
Pigtown is ranked 14th in team pitching with a 3.95 ERA, a solid team ERA. J.McGinnity and J.Tudor head the starters with ERA's of 3.33. L.Smith has 8 wins and 14 saves out of the pen to add good support. With some decent ERA's, L.Tiant and R.Halladay just need to get some wins. In the hitting department, Pigtown is ranked 8th, smack in the middle of the pack. B.Joyce and E.Flick stand out as the top hitters on the team. H.Greenburg needs to bust out and start crushing the ball. Overall the team is okay, but,...
Climax, on paper (cards), probably has one of the best teams in the NL. But they just can't seem to get it together. Team wise, they have the second lowest ERA in the NL. S.Chandler, R.Waddell and S.Wood make up a solid top three in the starting rotation and J.Wetteland is the fireman you want to call out of the pen. As for the offense,...well, that's where the trouble is. C.Bell and J.Beckwith are hitting for average but nothing else. Five players are driving in 30+ RBI's but are not hitting enough to make it something opponents need to worry about. If that power hitting could just come around,...
Okay, those three will finish in this order,... Climax, Fantomz and Pigtown.
Charm City is watching the three teams above them and waiting for someone to fall so they can make a move. Charm City has a bad home record but an above .500 away record. They also have a below .500 record in 1-run and extra inning games. With a team ERA ranked 6th in the NL, I'm not sure they can blame their losses on the pitching. Take team ace C.Hamels. His ERA is 1.83 but his record is 4-7. He obviously is not getting support. A couple other pitchers are in the same boat. The hitting is ranked 11th. They are also 3rd in HR's and their R/G is 4.1. So what's going on? Their leading hitters are T.Agee and G.Carter. Both hitting below .275 but both with double digit HR's. Charm City should pass Pigtown.
Virginia,...Sucks! Virginia doesn't have a winning record in anything. Oh, wait. Gotta get this in,...they do have a winning record against Coastline and Detroit. They are ranked 11th in both pitching and hitting. The pitching staff is led by L.Day and his 2.58 ERA. The pen has 4 relievers with ERA's under 2.34. J.Anderson and H.Heilmann lead what little offense is generated. In a good year with a good card, M.Mantle is hitting a robust .210 with 10 dingers. He stinks. Virginia is so bad, if it wasn't for the owner-less Laurel team, they'd be secured in last place. As it is they'll end up next to last.
Laurel is owener-less,...and almost winless. They've won 19 games in the first half. They are last in everything. Pitchers D.Newcombe and C.Mathewson have good ERA's for this team but the other starters are bad. The leading hitter is H.Manush at .248. Ten players are under the Mendoza line. Prediction – Last.
Now the NL West Division.
Pittsburgh tops the West Division with the best record at the halfway point. At home they're playing at a .667 pace and .682 away. In twenty-five 1-run games they are at an unbelievable .800 clip while they are 6-4 in extra innings. And they only have losing records to Coastline and West Michigan. When it comes to pitching, Pittsburgh is ranked #1 with a 3.21 ERA. T,Lyons and W.Sphan lead the rotation with ERA's under 3.00 but the other three starters are over 4.00 and 6.00. B.Posey leads in batting and is one of three hitters batting over .300. W.Mays leads in HR's and RBI's. As good as the first half has been for Pittsburgh, I see a bit of regression in the second half. Look for a drop to the second spot.
Yucaipa is right behind Pittsburgh and basically tied with West Michigan. Yucaipa has good numbers all across the board and just needs to keep up the pace and maybe kick it up a bit. Yucaipa's pitching is ranked 4th with a 3.52 ERA and is led by J.Arrieta and his 2.47 ERA. J.Candelaria slots in the two hole with his 2.93 ERA and 14 QS out of 17 starts. M.Rivera and R,Fingers are the workhorses in the pen and could use some help from B.Ryan and his 21* grade. Flaunting a .267 team BA, Yucaipa is ranked 1st in hitting and has five batters hitting .293 and above. J.DiMaggio heads that group along with M.Alou while S.Garvey adds power within the group. I see Yucaipa stealing the Division title.
West Michigan has played one more game than Yucaipa but is basically tied with them. Like Yucaipa, West Michigan has good numbers across the board, including .561 at home and .600 away. Their pitching is ranked 5th with a 3.52 ERA. G.Harris and his 2.77 ERA leads that staff but has a 4-5 w-l record. Behind him is B.Lee with a 7-6 3.22 line. Ranking 6th with a .243 team BA, West Michigan has B.Dickey batting .314 along with part timer J.Posada at .302. J.Medwick's 12 HR's are most on the club. I see West Michigan giving some problems to Yucaipa and Pittsburgh but I think West Michigan ends up in third.
San Tan is one game ahead of Southlake, 4 behind West Michigan. They are playing at a .550 clip at home and .512 away. They are only 7-10 in 1-run games and 4-3 in extra innings. Against West Division rivals they are 26-23, similar to the teams in front of them. Tied in the rankings for 8th with a 3.61 ERA, San Tan has R.Johnson with his 9-5, 2.57 ERA as their ace and E.Walsh with his 6-5, 3.25 ERA as the number two starter. In batting, San Tan is ranked 4th and is 2nd in HR's. S.Magee carries the top BA at .332 with E.Averill behind him at .294. H.Davis has the most HR's with 19 and has collected 76 RBI. San Tan has a shot at overtaking West Michigan but I'm also thinking that Southlake, who beat San Tan 6 games to 1, could overtake San Tan. I go with San Tan drops down.
Southlake is the fifth team in the West Division to be playing over .500 ball. Home they are playing .541 ball and away .500 ball. Overall they are playing good ball,...but they are right on the edge and could go either way. Team wise, Southlake's pitching is ranked 10th with a 3.67 ERA. A.Pettitte leads the starters with a 3.12 ERA. J.Haines lines up behind Pettitte with a 3.18 ERA. After that, starter ERA's drop to over 4.00 and over 5.00. Southlake's hitting is tied for 9th with a .233 BA. Although three part-timers have higher averages, J.Collins heads the team with a .276 BA and A.Pujols has a .273 BA with 35 doubles and 18 homers. There are 3 to 5 players who are under performing and could change Southlake's future if they got hot. With San Tan dropping, I see Southlake moving up one,
Iowa is a tad below .500 in 6th place. At home, Iowa has a 26-18 record and away a 12-25 record. Ouch! Jim might want to play more away games on Team Viewer so he can control his team rather than the Micro Manager. Iowa's pitching is ranked 11th with a 3.81 ERA. B.Lemon is the ace with a 2.92 ERA and a 11-3 record. M.Fidrych backs up Lemon with his 3.41 ERA. The one surprise is D.Dean having such a bad year as evidenced by his 5-12 record. The taem batting is ranked 7th with a .241 BA. T.Helton leads the team at .291 with J.Morgan next at .276. Power? They only have 38 as a team. Sorry Jim, I see you staying in 6th if Madison East doesn't hit a hot streak.
Madison East sits in 7th place and they are going to have a hard time moving up. Madison East's home and away records, 1-run and extra inning records and Divisional record are all well below .500.
In the pitching department, Madison East ranks 13th with a 3.90 ERA. C.Kluber, and his 2.39 ERA was traded away leaving H.Newhouser's 2.96 the top ERA among starters. After that, the other starters have ERA's in the 4's. The batting is ranked 15th based on their .225 BA with a league low 29 HR's. R.Cey has a nice .303 BA with 8 HR's and T.Oliva is batting .264. There's just not much punch in that line-up.
They will stay in 7th or drop to 8th.
Motown is in last. They could lose 100 this season, but I don't think they will. I know all their records home and away and so forth are very poor so no need to go over them. Their pitching is ranked 15th due to a 4.17 ERA. R.Guidry has a nice 2.79 ERA but after him the starting ERA's jump to over 4 and 5. The hitting is ranked 9th with a .233 BA. G.Scott leads the way in hitting with a .299 BA with 15 HR's. C.Stengel adds his .281 BA to give a little help. Motown will probably come in last but it wouldn't surprise me if they switched with Madison East.
Well. There it is folks. No rhyme or reason to any of this. It's all speculation and guesswork. We'll have to see what happens now.
Paul
Virginia
