LEG American League Season 4 Predictions
You can rank teams in so many different ways that if 20 people did it, you would probably get 20 different rankings. It just depends of what you rank them on and the rating scale you decide to use. That said, this was just done for some fun. It does not mean that the teams are as good or bad as I have ranked them and it doesn't mean they will preform like I may have suggested. It's just one of probably a thousand ways to rank teams. Me? I am not good with numbers so I try to keep it simple for me. Therefore, I ranked pitching based on a 5 man rotation using starting pitchers with at least 750 MBF's. Relief was based on the top 4 relievers. A pitcher could not be rated at both. Pitchers were divided into BBW pitcher grades (25-30, 20-24, 15-19, 10-14, 5-9) and given a rank value for each grade,...so a grade 25 got the same rank as a grade 30.
The hitting rankings were based on OPS. For me, you need runners to be on base (OB%) to score runs and you need hits to score them. Because different grade pitchers turn different hit numbers into outs, AND since ALL hit numbers EXCEPT the power numbers 1 and 0 get changed, that makes SLG an important category for me,...therefore I used OPS. Some of the players you may use as starters may or may not actually be starters for you. I counted only the players that had a PR/SF rating of 750/100 or above. Again, you can rate and rank the teams in any way you want. I just did it this way. It may not be right, but it may not be wrong,...it just is what it is...a simple way for my non mathematical mind to put order to something that I wanted to order.
Remember, this is just for fun and is only one way of doing this. It does not take into account actual lineups and managerial acumen. So, read and laugh and enjoy.
Pitching - Based on 5 starters – rated 1-5 based on A+,A,B,C,D
Relievers - Based on 4 Relievers – rated as above
Hitters – rated 1-3 based on OPS – 1= 800+ 2= 900+ 3=1000+
I am starting with the American League. I will work on the National League next.
In the AL East there were five teams with very strong scores. The two top teams were Delaware (49) and Havana (48). Both these teams tied (with Middle Channel) with the highest score in pitching with a score of 30. Delaware had a 1 point advantage in the starting rotation due to Pedro Martinez' grade 21 to go with Ray Brown and Orval Overall's grade 18's. Havana had four starters in the 15 to 19 range. Corey Kluber 17 and Brett Saberhagen and Kevin Appier came in with 16's. However, Havana scored 16 relief points to Delaware's 15 due to a 26*, 21*, 21* in the pen compared to a Delaware's 24*, 21*, 20*. Delaware edged out Havana for the top overall spot due to the top score in hitting. They totaled 19 points to Havana's 18. Only one point difference separated them. They both have potentially potent offenses with two players each with an over 1.000 OPS. Delaware was led by Dixie Walker (.353 BA, 1.002 OPS) and Ralph Kiner (.304 BA, 51 HR and 1.042 OPS) and added six players over .900 in OPS (one more than Havana). Havana was led by Socks Seybold (.300 BA, 66 HR and a 1.093 OPS) and Jim Wynn (.300 BA, 38 HR and a 1.000 OPS).
Behind these two teams were Jack Street (42), Chicago (42) and Middle Channel (41). Both Jack Street and Chicago came in with a pitching score of (28). However, Chicago had (14) for the starters with Roger Clemens leading the way with his grade 21 and Whitey Ford adding a 17. In the pen, Blake Treinen and his grade 26* led the way to a (14) score for relief. Jack Street had an (11) for the starters with Cliff Melton the Ace with a grade 18. Relievers added a strong 17 for the relief score to get their total score of (42). Will Harris had a grade 21* and Jeff Shaw a grade 20*. When it came to hitting, they both scored (14) points. However, Chicago had two players with over 1.000 OPS, (Willie Wells .360 BA and 1.090 OPS along with Mike Trout's .333 BA and 1.041 OPS) whereas Jack Street had none. These small differences may make a big difference for Chicago when the season begins. As for Middle Channel, their pitching was tied with Delaware and Havana for the top score of (30). But their starters totaled just (13) points. Max Scherzer had an off year as he was graded a 16, but he was still the Ace. It was their bullpen with Aroldis Chapman 25*, Al Holland 20*, Willie Hernandez 20* and Jesse Crain 20*, that got their score to (30). Their hitting? Well, Middle Channel's hitting did not help their overall score as they only totaled 11 points. With Ty Cobb having an off year, Whitey Kurowski was the big bat (.320 BA, 32 HR, .947 OPS).
The bottom three teams consisted of Kansas City (39), Cincinnati (38) and Lewisberry (35). Kansas City came in with a pitching score of (26). Their starters were a solid (15) score with Ace ThreeFingers Brown with a grade 21. But the relief was low with a score of (11),...lowest in the East, with Greg Harris the top reliever at 16*. Hitting-wise, their score of (13) was a little low, but they did have five players with an over .900 OPS. The big hitter on the team?,,,Hank Aaron (.333 BA, 29 HR, .970 OPS).
Cincinnati's pitching score was a very respectable (29). With Dazzy Vance and his grade 16 and four 15's, the starters are a solid staff but lacked that 18+ ace one needs to make waves. The pen (15) will make up a little for any deficiency as they have a 27* (Scott Williamson with only 125 MBF) and Greg Olson's 23*. Cincinnati's downfall comes in the hitting department where they scored an AL East low of (9). Ted Williams will be highly counted on (.390 BA, 38 HR, 1.265 OPS) but they will need to find more power somewhere and may need to resort to the trade market.
Lewisberry (35) came in with the lowest score in the East. A pitching score of (24) was highlighted by the lowest starting score in the American League, (10). Jim Bunning's 14 was the highest graded starter with the exception of Don Mossi's grade 20 but only 427 MBF. The relief score of (14) was acceptable and featured Trevor Hoffman's 23* and Matt Thornton's 18* (with only 187 MBF) . The pen will probably see a lot of work this season. Lewisberry's hitting score of (11) did not help their overall score. They do have a player with an over 1.000 OPS (Babe Ruth .303 BA and 1.177 OPS) and two over .900. With a little luck,...?
TEAM SCORE Starters Relief Pitching Hitting
Delaware 49 15 15 30 19
Havana 48 14 16 30 18
JackStreet 42 11 17 28 14
Chicago 42 14 14 28 14
Mid.Channel 41 13 17 30 11
Kansa City 39 15 11 26 13
Cincinnati 38 14 15 29 9
Lewisberry 35 10 14 24 11
In the American League West, Fort Worth (44) and Cheyenne (43) captured the top two spots. Fort Worth had the top pitching score in the American League with a strong (33). The starters scored a solid (17) on the basis of a Greg Maddux 22 grade and Justin Verlander's 20, Add two 17's and a 16 and you have a pretty good staff. The relievers were right behind at (16). Dennis Eckersley brought a 25*, Jason Isringhausen a 21*, Scott Radinsky a 20* and Steve Farr an 18* from the pen and they even added a 27* that didn't qualify due to only 94 MBF. This is a very good staff. Cheyenne was right behind Fort Worth with their (43). The starters (15) consisted of Bert Blyleven and Lefty Grove, with 17's, a 16 and two 15's. Very good but not quite as strong as Fort Worth. They do have an 18/21* but he didn't qualify with MBF's as a starter, though he could be expected to see some time as a starter. With the 18/21*, Tom Henke's 22*, and a 15* and 12*. the pen tallied a (13). That gave Cheyenne a total of (28) for the pitching staff. When it came to hitting, Fort Worth (11) was well behind Cheyenne (15). Cheyenne had one player with an OPS over 1.000, (Tommy Leach .281 BA, 53 HR and 1.032 OPS) and Fort Worth had no one.
Behind Fort Worth and Cheyenne came Purry (40), Hollywood (40) and Wrigleyville (40). Purry's pitching score came in at (29). The starters scored (15) with Johnny Cueto's grade 20 leading the way. The bullpen came in at (14) with Billy Wagner 22* and Hoyt Wilhelm 21* vying for closer. They also have Zach Britton 22* but with only 84 MBF he didn't qualify in the rankings. Purry needed the high pitching score because their hitting came in very low,...an (11). Even though Jack Fournier came in with a 1.053 OPS (.336, 26 HR), the rest of the team did not help much.
Hollywood's pitching score was a decent (26). Walter “Big Train” Johnson and his grade 22 led the staff and he was followed by two grade 17's. Eve n though the pen was a little low at (12), it consisted of four grade 19*'s (yeah, I know, how is that low?). A couple of those 19*'s are Bobby Schantz and Dellin Betances. For their hitting, Hollywood scored a very nice (14). The starting nine, all had .800 or .900 OPS. Good bats. And the biggest bat in that group? Eddie Collins (.345 BA, 17 HR, .977 OPS).
Wrigleyville with a low (22) pitching score still came in with a good overall score of (40). Dave Stieb and his grade 16 made him the Ace of the staff. After that it was a 14 and a bunch of 13's that brought the starters a score of (11). The bullpen (11) was not any better. Two 17*'s and a 16* don't get you top scores. But wait. They scored (40) points. Oh, yeah. The hitting. Wrigleyville had three players with over 1.000 OPS. They are Will Clark (.357 BA, 24 HR, 1.015 OPS), Al Simmons (.356 BA, 23 HR, 1.030 OPS) and Carl Yastrzemski (.349 BA, 42 HR, 1.092 OPS). With them in the lineup you're gonna score some runs.
Thunder Ridge (36) came in at number six in the AL West. Their pitching score was a (28). The starters came in at (13) with Denny McLain and Ben Sheets at the top of the rotation with grades of 16. They do have Jacob DeGrom's grade 25, but he is a 364 MBF and did not qualify for pitching. In the bullpen, Greg Gagne's 22*, Rick Aguilera's 22* and Larry Anderson's 20* helped get the pen a score of (15) and make this a pen to like. Unfortunately, Thunder Ridge had the lowest score in the American League when it came to hitting,...(8). Andres Gallaraga (.315 BA, 32 HR, .945 OPS), Andy Van Slyke (.339 BA, 15 HR, .927 OPS) and Kirk Gibson (.308 BA, 30 HR, .931 OPS) led the hitters. But after that? Well,...??
Stratford (34) and San Diego (31) held down the bottom spots in the AL West. Stratford's pitching score was a (25). Starters came in at (12) with Allan Sothoron and Dizzy Trout heading up the staff with grades of 15. In relief (13 score), Kelvin Herrera's grade 20* put him in line to close. The rest will sort itself out as the season goes on. The hitting was a point better (9) than Thunder Ridge. They did have one player in the 1.000 OPS range. That, of course, was Shoeless Joe Jackson (.380 BA, 14 HR, 1.035 OPS). The rest of the hitters were in the .800 range.
And finally, San Diego (31). Mark Langston (grade 16) and Vic Willis (grade 15) led the starters to a score of (12) and Ron Reed (17*) led the pen to a score of (9). Combined, the pitchers came in at (21). It may make for a long year for San Diego, They did get a score of (10) from the hitting department. Not great but not the worst. The two hitters adding the most to the lineup were Bobby Abreu (.322 BA, 13 HR, .919 OPS) and Dick Dietz (.304 BA, 19 HR, .929 OPS).
TEAM SCORE Starters Relief Pitching Hitting
Fort Worth 44 17 16 33 11
Cheyenne 43 15 13 28 15
Purry 40 15 14 29 11
Hollywood 40 14 12 26 14
Wrigleyville 40 11 11 22 18
Thunder Rdg, 36 13 15 28 8
Stratford 34 12 13 25 9
San Diego 31 12 9 21 10
So there it is. The predictions for the American League. Accurate? Of course they are!? Real accurate? Well, they are real. There is that thing called probability and chance that may influence the outcome. Oh, and human error,...or even luck. Who knows? But it was fun to do. As I did the research on these teams I must say that I was not agreeable to all the final scores on all the teams. Some seemed too high and some too low. I think part of that may be putting the pitching grades into five groups based on APBA/BBW pitching grades of A+, A, B, C, D. Is it really fair to give the same value to a grade 15 and a grade 19 pitcher? Probably not. But it is easier to total the points. Anyway. It is what it is. Enjoy.
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Paul
Virginia