Hints About APBA Card Numbers

For those unfamiliar with the term “PRN”, it means Play Result Number

 

APBA Cards & Nap Lajoie. Posting here for I know sometimes the eyes start rolling when Card #'s are the topic. Nap's card is 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-7 with 3 walk #'s. The whole play generation is derived from these numbers. That's 7 power #'s that can never be stopped. A high grade pitcher (grade 18+) can sometimes reduce the 0 power roll to a single, but it's rare. Add 3 prn8, and 2 prn9, and 1 prn 10 that brings his card to 14 hit numbers for 33 play results, eliminating walks. That's a .420 batting average against D pitchers. .240 against grade 18+. In normal current APBA leagues, a card of 0-0-0-0-7-7 with 3 walks is considered very good. What adjective can we use for someone like Lajoie with a 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-7 card? His LEG season 3 Triple Crown is well deserved. Why anyone would pitch to him with any runner on base is the question?

 

Cardmetrics or APBA Ball. There has always been the battle between the Baseball Purists and Table Gamers in the APBA community. People who are good at games like Chess, checkers, Monopoly, Rail Barron, etc are attracted and good at the APBA game. Then there are the players who want their imagination to be realistic and would never make a move unless it was a basic baseball move. One often overlooked quirk is with the Runners on 1st & 3rd situation. The "C" pitcher is actually better than the "B" pitcher. The prn 8 gets stopped by the "C" and not the "B". Since most cards have 3 prn 8 and only 2 prn 9 the math favors the lesser pitcher. So if you see someone bring in a "D" reliever, he becomes a "C" for the first same side batter....and thus statistically better than the "B".

 

Another interesting APBA Ball quirk is the Play-Result-Number (PRN) 12. It somewhat closely follows conventional baseball strategy, but not always. With a runner on 1B and a Left Handed Hitter at bat, it makes a big difference whether the runner is held on 1B or not. The Left Handed hitter is sometimes a Pull Right hitter and the PRN12 becomes a base hit. Generally it pays to Not Hold against runners who have little chance of a steal, or low SSN, thus not allowing the PRN12 to become a base hit. Base situation with runners on 1B & 2B is another similar situation against a Left Handed hitter. The chances of a Double Play are greatly increased when one holds the runner on 1B against a RH batter. The same PRN12 comes into effect against a LH batter, so one must constantly adjust one's defense against the batting characteristics of the hitter.

 

It's been years (decades) since the actual APBA Master Game boards were analyzed. I do recall a great divide in the community over where to play one's OF3. Dick Seitz loved the multi talented defensive centerfielder and it is believed that the boards were written with playing one's OF3 in center as a priority. Doug Reese (APBABTL) firmly states this. However, it's the practice of many APBA Ball enthusiasts that they play their only OF3 in right field because of the severity of potential error. Often the error by the RF is a base clearing one, and not just an extra base here or there. The arm strength also plays into this, as a 38+ arm in right field is a distinct advantage for the defense. So, if one has a speedy OF3 with a noodle arm, then CF if just fine. But.....give a thought to putting your only OF3 in RF if his arm is in the Dwight Evans, Mark Whiten category.

 

Base running clues: Runner on 1B, RH batter, Double. Minimal chance to score unless LF has a very weak arm and runner is very fast. Even with 2 out, trying to score is risky. LH batter Double goes to right field and a much better mathematical chance to score from 1b, Probably should try it with a fast runner and average arm in RF. With 2 out it's almost a given to score. (edited)

 

Runner on 1B, Single to CF. Likely PRN10. Probably a 66% chance to get to 3B depending on speed & arm being average.

Runner on 2B, Single to CF. Somewhat better math to score than getting to 3b when runner at 1B. Fast runner almost always safe.

Runners on 1B & 3B, Double. Runner on 1B is almost always safe at home unless very strong outfield arm and slow runner.

Stealing 2B. No firm numbers here, but batters batting average seems to be decreased....or pitchers grade increased, probably 5 points.

Pitchers Home Run Letters. Very important. Do not disregard. The L can be worked around, but the M is deadly. With the L and runners on 1B & 3B, and 2B & 3B most extra base hits become home runs. Consider walking the hitter if he has 4 power numbers, and deal with a singles hitter if possible.

PRN5. Because the 5 is not as prevalent due to Normalization, it's still a factor. If a batter has multiple PRN5 in the second column his chances of a dinger with a runner(s) on greatly increases. Consider the IW.

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More Card reading info for those who may have never played the Card&Dice version of the APBA game. PRN24 is one of the worst outcomes on the card. It's a ground ball to 2B, and with a runner on 1B it's almost always a double play. PRN24 are assigned specifically for this reason. A LH hitter with no PRN24's is a treasure. A hitter with 1 PRN24 is worrisome. You will find hitters with 2, or more PRN24's and this is concerning because it really kills rallies. If you have two slow catchers, one hits .250 with 3 PRN24's and the other hits .220 with no PRN24's, seriously think about who hits with men on base. The possible saving grace is the PRN31. Generally a fly out to CF. Good contact hitters are assigned a minimum of 2 PRN31's making them good hit&run candidates. Our LEG league has many hitters who are so good with bat control that they are assigned 3 PRN31's. On the hit&run the PRN31 becomes a single to CF and the runner goes to 3B. If a hitter has a couple of PRN24's and 2-3 PRN31's it really pays to always hit&run (if runner on 1B is qualified at R28 or better) for at least it may avoid the DP. We see so many Grade A pitchers in this league, that hitters with 3 PRN31's become very valuable for they add 3 more hit #'s above the PRN0 & PRN7.

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Pitching Grades - As far as pitchers’ grades, MG 1-4 = Grade D in Basic, 5-9 = Grade C, 10-14 = B, 15-19 = A, 20-24 = A&C and 25+ = A&B.   ( added by me. Not sure how this computes in BBW )